Jack Dorsey skipped ActivityPub, built AtProto, lost Twitter, funded Bluesky, watched it become a company with VCs and a board, said it was "repeating all the mistakes," left, and now funds Nostr.
-
@stefan it comes from @laurenshof.
@thisismissem @stefan
id estimate it at 12M MAU, probably a bit higher (this is dependent on the ratio you take for users participate versus lurkers, this estimates that this ratio is the same for DAU as it is for MAU. but likely that this ratio is higher for MAU than for DAU)
https://bsky.app/profile/laurenshof.online/post/3mdisqjlb5s2i -
@thisismissem @stefan
id estimate it at 12M MAU, probably a bit higher (this is dependent on the ratio you take for users participate versus lurkers, this estimates that this ratio is the same for DAU as it is for MAU. but likely that this ratio is higher for MAU than for DAU)
https://bsky.app/profile/laurenshof.online/post/3mdisqjlb5s2i@thisismissem @stefan the reason for doing this multiplier is not so much for getting MAU right in absolute terms, but because mastodon/fedi MAU data also includes lurkers in their data. So you need it to get a fair comparison between fedi and the atmosphere
-
@thisismissem donors, not investors.
@evan @quillmatiq @dansup@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup rich people who believe in the vision and want to see the future you're promising. They might not expect a 10x return, but let's not kid ourselves, they're putting in because there's something in it for them and they get a nice tax write-off.
If your donors stop donating because they no longer believe in the vision/team/etc, then that'll limit the project. You need these wealthy donors to stay happy, as much as Bluesky PBC needs their investors to stay happy.
Wealthy people with money to give/invest in support of a future you've sold them.
-
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup rich people who believe in the vision and want to see the future you're promising. They might not expect a 10x return, but let's not kid ourselves, they're putting in because there's something in it for them and they get a nice tax write-off.
If your donors stop donating because they no longer believe in the vision/team/etc, then that'll limit the project. You need these wealthy donors to stay happy, as much as Bluesky PBC needs their investors to stay happy.
Wealthy people with money to give/invest in support of a future you've sold them.
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup your roadmap is also largely determined by whatever you can get money for. The argument of investors in a PBC vs donors in a non-profit is silly because you're both taking money from extremely wealthy people to survive long enough to hopefully be sustainable without those big cash injections.
You've almost certainly had to make promises to donors to get them onboard.
It might not be a promise of a return, but wealthy people are still exerting some control on the project.
-
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup your roadmap is also largely determined by whatever you can get money for. The argument of investors in a PBC vs donors in a non-profit is silly because you're both taking money from extremely wealthy people to survive long enough to hopefully be sustainable without those big cash injections.
You've almost certainly had to make promises to donors to get them onboard.
It might not be a promise of a return, but wealthy people are still exerting some control on the project.
@thisismissem You are wrong here, those donations were not made in exchange of any specific features.
This is the case for grants where the money is in exchange of specific deliverables, but those donations were not grants.
-
@thisismissem You are wrong here, those donations were not made in exchange of any specific features.
This is the case for grants where the money is in exchange of specific deliverables, but those donations were not grants.
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup sure. I believe your 2024 annual report states that 1.5 million from Jeff Atwood was specifically for trying to restructure the projects organisation, that's a "feature" as big as any.
-
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup sure. I believe your 2024 annual report states that 1.5 million from Jeff Atwood was specifically for trying to restructure the projects organisation, that's a "feature" as big as any.
@thisismissem this is what went to Eugen + some legal fees around the complex legal restructuring that went alongside it.
-
@thisismissem this is what went to Eugen + some legal fees around the complex legal restructuring that went alongside it.
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup right, and that still served a purpose. It unblocked the organisation in order for the organisation to ship faster & to grow.
-
@thisismissem @stefan the reason for doing this multiplier is not so much for getting MAU right in absolute terms, but because mastodon/fedi MAU data also includes lurkers in their data. So you need it to get a fair comparison between fedi and the atmosphere
@laurenshof eh, you can certainly speculate but then maybe you need to start thinking of the fact that estimating fediverse MAU is far less exact and likely to underreport because you have to make decisions about querying tens of thousands of servers and a significant chunk don't even report active users. Do you also apply this there?
-
@laurenshof eh, you can certainly speculate but then maybe you need to start thinking of the fact that estimating fediverse MAU is far less exact and likely to underreport because you have to make decisions about querying tens of thousands of servers and a significant chunk don't even report active users. Do you also apply this there?
@ikuturso yeah, theres really only one server where them not reporting mau makes a meaningful difference, and thats misskey.social. i had a post from summer 2024 i think where i estimated them at 250k mau at that point based on total post count, but havent done the analysis since
-
@ikuturso yeah, theres really only one server where them not reporting mau makes a meaningful difference, and thats misskey.social. i had a post from summer 2024 i think where i estimated them at 250k mau at that point based on total post count, but havent done the analysis since
@laurenshof well that's the easy one to point to where it makes a huge difference but that doesn't mean the rest don't make a difference in aggregate.
There are also some large instances that are widely (but not universally) defederated and usually not counted in the stats you can get from places like fedidb. That's in addition to the ones they simply miss.
-
@laurenshof well that's the easy one to point to where it makes a huge difference but that doesn't mean the rest don't make a difference in aggregate.
There are also some large instances that are widely (but not universally) defederated and usually not counted in the stats you can get from places like fedidb. That's in addition to the ones they simply miss.
@ikuturso i run my own tracker set for this, which does include the Bad Places in the count. it does not make a meaningful difference in aggregate
-
@ikuturso i run my own tracker set for this, which does include the Bad Places in the count. it does not make a meaningful difference in aggregate
@laurenshof so do you have some kind of a methodology for applying a multiplier accounting for how much your tracker misses?
-
@laurenshof so do you have some kind of a methodology for applying a multiplier accounting for how much your tracker misses?
@ikuturso i used to be a data analyst in previous jobs, what youre doing is asking the same type of questions PMs would ask me if the reporting gave results they didnt like
trying to tweak the methology wont magically make an uncomfortable number more comfortable -
@ikuturso yeah, theres really only one server where them not reporting mau makes a meaningful difference, and thats misskey.social. i had a post from summer 2024 i think where i estimated them at 250k mau at that point based on total post count, but havent done the analysis since
@laurenshof I assume you mean misskey.io here but I wonder why you think only that instance can matter when most of them do not report it and the rest do make up for like 450k users compared to misskey.io's 750k.
-
@ikuturso i used to be a data analyst in previous jobs, what youre doing is asking the same type of questions PMs would ask me if the reporting gave results they didnt like
trying to tweak the methology wont magically make an uncomfortable number more comfortable@laurenshof no what I'm doing is pointing out that you should have one standard. Now you seem to be taking a social media post and coming up with a random multiplier in one case.
You also have not made a very good case for why there cannot be a significant difference. "I used to be a data analyst" isn't really doing it for me, sorry.
-
@evan @dansup The number of developers and communities who've been pushed out of the Fedi because of this elitist mentality should be alarming to any builder in this space. Are we ever going to learn to do better, or are we going to continue pushing more people away?
The vibes aren't good, Evan, and I really hope you're aware of that, because vibes make or break a community.
@quillmatiq @evan @dansup the vibes don't seem to be very great from the Bluesky side either. I do think it seems like gaslighting when there's this constant drumbeat of people who have clearly taken that side coming to blame it all on the AP people.
Maybe it wasn't always this way and the Bluesky vibes have shifted because the project doesn't seem to be doing all that well unfortunately. Whatever we think about Threads, it has clearly emerged as the main beneficiary of the Twitter takeover at this point.
-
@evan @dansup @quillmatiq Evan, perhaps spend some time introspecting why ActivityPub didn't get more adoption and why developers love AT Protocol.
@thisismissem @evan @dansup @quillmatiq What developers love is not a great metric as becomes apparent if you follow the tech industry for a while.
-
@thisismissem @evan @dansup @quillmatiq What developers love is not a great metric as becomes apparent if you follow the tech industry for a while.
@ikuturso @evan @dansup @quillmatiq well, you need developers to want to build great social experiences on protocols for any given protocol to succeed. They need to be productive to deliver the features regular people want, if the protocol prevents that, or doesn't provide what developers want, they'll do something else.
So yes, people first if we're looking at it from a product perspective; but if we're looking at it from a technological perspective, then yeah, it's developers you need to keep happy, so they can keep end-users of their software happy.
-
@renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup rich people who believe in the vision and want to see the future you're promising. They might not expect a 10x return, but let's not kid ourselves, they're putting in because there's something in it for them and they get a nice tax write-off.
If your donors stop donating because they no longer believe in the vision/team/etc, then that'll limit the project. You need these wealthy donors to stay happy, as much as Bluesky PBC needs their investors to stay happy.
Wealthy people with money to give/invest in support of a future you've sold them.
@thisismissem @renchap @evan @quillmatiq @dansup you do still agree there is a massive difference between a donation and an investment right?
